Whales of Polymarket: Should You Copy New Large Traders?

When a brand new wallet makes a large first trade on Polymarket, should you copy them? We analyzed 198 new whale buy transactions from December 2025 to find out.

The result: 89.4% of these trades went UP.

The Hypothesis

New wallets making $5,000+ first trades aren’t random retail traders. They’re likely:

1. Information-advantaged - They know something the market doesn’t
2. Sophisticated analysts - They’ve done deep research before entering
3. Insiders or connected parties - Moving funds through fresh wallets

If these assumptions hold, following their trades should be profitable.

The Data

We queried Polymarket’s on-chain data for wallets that:

• Made their first trade ever between December 1-15, 2025
• That first trade was a BUY order
• The trade size was at least $5,000 USDC

SQL Query to Find New Whales

WITH wallet_first_trades AS (
    SELECT
        wallet,
        MIN(block_timestamp) as first_trade_time
    FROM polymarket.polymarket_order_filled
    GROUP BY wallet
)
SELECT
    t.wallet as wallet,
    t.block_timestamp as block_timestamp,
    t.asset as asset,
    t.amount_usdc / 1e6 as usdc_amount,
    t.amount_token / 1e6 as token_amount
FROM wallet_first_trades wft
INNER JOIN polymarket.polymarket_order_filled t
    ON wft.wallet = t.wallet
    AND wft.first_trade_time = t.block_timestamp
WHERE wft.first_trade_time >= '2025-12-01'
  AND wft.first_trade_time < '2025-12-15'
  AND t.side = 'B'  -- Buy orders only
  AND t.amount_usdc / 1e6 >= 5000
ORDER BY t.block_timestamp

Output:

Found 689 new whale buy transactions
Total USDC volume: $13,275,384.00
Average buy size: $19,267.61
Median buy size: $9,990.00
Largest buy: $323,371.99
Unique wallets: 525
Unique assets: 146

Tracking Price Movements

For each whale buy, we tracked how the price moved afterward:

# For each whale buy, query subsequent trades to calculate returns
query = f"""
SELECT
    block_timestamp,
    amount_usdc / 1e6 as amount_usdc,
    amount_token / 1e6 as amount_token
FROM polymarket.polymarket_order_filled
WHERE asset = '{asset_id}'
  AND block_timestamp > '{buy_time}'
  AND block_timestamp < '{end_time}'
  AND amount_token > 0
ORDER BY block_timestamp
"""

trades = db.query_df(query)
trades['price'] = trades['amount_usdc'] / trades['amount_token']

# Calculate returns
max_price = trades['price'].max()
min_price = trades['price'].min()
final_price = trades['price'].iloc[-1]

max_return_pct = ((max_price - buy_price) / buy_price) * 100
max_drawdown_pct = ((min_price - buy_price) / buy_price) * 100
final_return_pct = ((final_price - buy_price) / buy_price) * 100

The Results

Metric	Value
Success Rate	89.4% went UP
Failure Rate	10.6% went DOWN
Average Max Return	+2.8% (peak profit potential)
Average Max Drawdown	+0.4% (worst case loss)
Average Final Return	+2.4% (if held to end)

Why This Works

An 89.4% success rate is far better than random (which would be ~50%). Here’s what we believe is happening:

1. Information Advantage: New whales often have private information about market outcomes. Using fresh wallets keeps their identity hidden.

2. Superior Analysis: These traders may simply be better at research. A $5k+ first bet suggests high conviction.

3. Market Impact: Large buys move the price. The whale’s own purchase may push the market in their favor, at least temporarily.

Risk Management

While the win rate is high, not every trade succeeds. Key considerations:

• Position sizing: Don’t go all-in on any single whale follow
• Stop-loss: Consider exit if the trade drops 5-10%
• Timing: Entry price matters - don’t chase if the price has already moved significantly

Caveats

This analysis has limitations:

1. Time period: Only 2 weeks of data (Dec 1-15, 2025)
2. Survivorship bias: We only see trades that got filled
3. Execution: Following in real-time has slippage and timing challenges
4. Market conditions: Results may vary in different market environments

Conclusion

New whale traders on Polymarket appear to be a strong signal. With an 89.4% success rate and +2.4% average returns, following large first-time buyers shows positive expected value.

Key Takeaways:

• New whales with $5k+ first trades have information or conviction that translates to profits
• A simple “copy the whale” strategy has positive expected value
• Proper risk management (stop-loss) can improve returns further
• This is a data-driven, backtested result - not speculation

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The complete code and data for this analysis is available in our research repository. Always do your own research and never risk more than you can afford to lose.